FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, July 5: *** Epidemic Update: New field outbreaks of blue mold have been reported from the Ohio Valley, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and central NC *** Bill Nesmith in KY tells us that low levels of blue mold are present in much of central and eastern KY. Disease activity levels are greater in the northern and eastern sections, while little to no activity is occurring in the southern sections. Robin Stephenson in Ohio reports the first outbreak in that state. It is occurring in several fields in central Adams County, which borders northeast KY. Frank Bolick and Gary Hyatt, County Extension Agents in the NC mountains, inform us that blue mold has been confirmed in Avery, Watauga, and Mitchell counties. Our last new report comes from north-central NC, where blue mold has been found in four different counties. All of these infections are new and are being characterized as weak to perhaps moderate sources. Our disease map will be updated on Thursday to include these new reports. One other note: Paul Bertrand in Georgia informs us that blue mold remains active in some areas at low to moderate levels. While we are no longer generating detailed forecasts for the northern FL / southern GA region, we will continue to monitor the trajectories and weather and to report anything significant.
*** Our main weather influence this week is a slow-moving front. On Monday, the front was positioned from the Northeast into the lower Great Lakes. Favorable conditions for disease development have followed the front while it has moved south through mid-week. Risk assessments for each region from Monday through Thursday are as follows:
In southern Ontario, growers were at HIGH RISK on Monday, Low Risk from Tuesday through Thursday. In southern New England and southeast PA, there was Moderate Risk Monday and Tuesday, Low Risk Wednesday and Thursday. In the Ohio Valley, growers in central and eastern KY and southern OH were at Low Risk Monday, Strongly Moderate Risk Tuesday, HIGH RISK Wednesday, and Low Risk Thursday. In the southern Appalachian Mountains, there was Low Risk Monday, Moderate Risk Tuesday. There is HIGH RISK Wednesday, and Moderate Risk Thursday. In the Carolinas, growers were at Low Risk Monday, Moderate Risk Tuesday. On Wednesday there is Moderate Risk for central and eastern NC and north-central SC, and there is Low Risk on Thursday.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Central/Eastern KY, Southern Appalachian Mountains
HIGH RISK areas: Central and eastern KY, southern Appalachian Mountains
Blue Mold in the Field (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Southern GA / northern FL
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
