FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, August 4: *** Disease Update: John Yocum in Pennsylvania informs us that a serious outbreak of blue mold is occurring in Lancaster County, with disease activity in most tobacco fields. This leap in disease activity was first observed July 28 and has continued this week.
*** Highly favorable weather persists near a slow-moving front on Friday, from the mid-Atlantic westward to the Ohio Valley *** Growers in the Ohio Valley, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and the lower mid-Atlantic states are at HIGH RISK of disease development. Maryland and southern Pennsylvania growers are at Strongly Moderate Risk. Across the northern areas, southern Ontario and southern New England are at Low Risk. Risk levels will decrease on Saturday with a break between weather systems. Central and eastern NC and eastern sections of the Ohio Valley will be at Moderate Risk; other areas will be at Low Risk. By Sunday.... a low pressure system will be moving through the Great Lakes while the pre-existing front begins to move back to the north. Growers in the Ohio Valley and southern Ontario will be at Strongly Moderate Risk; the southern Appalachian Mountains and lower mid-Atlantic will be at Moderate Risk; growers in MD, PA, and New England will be at Low Risk.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Lower mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachian Mountains, Ohio Valley
HIGH RISK areas: Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, central and eastern NC, south-central VA. Other areas at Strongly Moderate Risk.
Blue Mold in the Field (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Southern GA / northern FL
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
