FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, April 24: *** Blue mold has been reported in southeast Georgia *** Paul Bertrand in Georgia informs us that blue mold has been discovered in two or three fields in Bacon and Appling Counties. Both old and new lesions are present along with some systemic infection. This is a source of moderate strength. Trajectories will originate from Alma, GA.
*** The weekend weather events went very much as expected. Now, a potent weather system will affect the Southeast and mid-Atlantic Monday and Tuesday *** Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, and will spread into the mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for long-range transport and effective deposition. On Monday..... there is HIGH RISK for western NC, western and extreme southwest VA, southern WV, eastern KY, and eastern TN. There is Moderate Risk for central and eastern NC and northern WV. Farther south, there is HIGH RISK for southeast GA, Strongly Moderate Risk for northern FL, and Moderate Risk for southern SC. Low Risk elsewhere. On Tuesday.... favorable conditions will persist in many areas. Growers in northern FL, southeast GA, and eastern NC will be at Strongly Moderate Risk of disease development, with Low Risk elsewhere. Transport episodes early this week bring the first high-level threat to growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern sections of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. System users are encouraged to consult the forecasts from Kinston, NC for more details.
The sources in Cuba and Mexico have been dropped from the production forecasts. As always, these areas will be monitored for any possible contribution to the spread of the epidemic.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Kinston, NC; Alma, GA; Alachua, FL
HIGH RISK areas: Southern Appalachian Mountains, eastern KY, eastern TN, northern FL, southeast GA
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 24 April 2000.