FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, April 21: *** Blue mold has been reported in southeast Georgia *** Paul Bertrand in Georgia informs us that blue mold has been discovered in two or three fields in Bacon and Appling Counties. Both old and new lesions are present along with some systemic infection. This is a source of moderate strength. Trajectories will originate from Alma, GA.
*** A cold front will move through the eastern U.S. today *** There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as the front passes. The eastern NC source is our main concern for the weekend. Airborne spores from eastern NC are moving northeast on Friday. Conditions are generally favorable for transport and deposition. On Friday, there is Moderate Risk for eastern NC. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast VA, southern and eastern MD, and Delaware. Growers beyond this area will be at Low Risk. On Saturday, the NC trajectory moves quickly eastward. There is Moderate Risk for growers in the central coastal plains of NC, with Low Risk elsewhere. On Sunday, conditions will be unfavorable in the mid-Atlantic, with Low Risk to growers. Elsewhere, the sources in GA, FL, and TX are Low Threats Friday through Sunday. Growers are at Low Risk of disease development.
The sources in Cuba and Mexico have been dropped from the production forecasts. As always, these areas will be monitored for any possible contribution to the spread of the epidemic.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 April 2000.