Blue mold has recently been confirmed in the northern Florida growing region. To determine what impact this source may have had prior to its discovery, we have generated potential spore transport events from Alachua County, FL for the period of 22 FEB through 21 MAR 2008. We have also received word within the past week that Cuba had a significant problem with blue mold during their recent growing season.
Consideration of our early season trajectories from Cuba, the latest report from Florida, the disease biology, and the above transport events supports the following synopsis:
It is highly likely that blue mold arrived in Florida from Cuba via the Feb 20 / Feb 21 transport events. Allowing for a 5-7 day latent period after infection, spores would have been available for transport from the last several days of February through the present. During this time, unfortunately, there were a number of opportunities for airborne spores to move over the growing regions to the north. The counts: eastern Carolinas 5 times, southern Appalachian Mountains 3 times, and the Ohio Valley 4 times. Numbers for the southern Georgia growing region are significantly higher due to the proximity of those areas to northern Florida. All of these occurred during the first 3 weeks of March.
Conditions for survivable transport are unknown for most of these cases. However, it is likely that live spores were carried over other growing regions during some of these events. For example, mixed conditions for survivable transport were present during the March 19 event that moved across the eastern Carolinas.
Therefore ... growers in the regions listed above with plants in greenhouses or plant beds are strongly encouraged to begin scouting for signs of disease at their earliest opportunity.