Possible impacts of the new source in PA - 9 June 2009

We have examined trajectories from the new PA source location for the time period of May 22 through June 5, to determine whether any of these transport events may have impacted other areas.

The most notable events include:

• Two events that moved northwest toward southern Ontario May 25 and 26
• Three events scattered over the 15-day period that moved northeast toward southern New England
• Three events that moved slowly southwest June 3-5

Other events moved north, east, or southeast.

The weather has been active over the northeast U.S. in recent weeks. While specific conditions are uncertain, there is a possibility that live airborne spores may have been deposited in the growing areas of PA, MD, southern Ontario, and southern New England. A mitigating factor is the small size of the source. It is currently the only one known.

Other growing areas of the U.S. appear to have been at far less threat from any transport events from the southeast PA outbreak.

Growers in the above areas are strongly encouraged to scout their plants for signs of disease.

TK